Egypt is aflame and we watch breathless. Will the fuse that was lit by one man’s self immolation in Tunisia spread across the Middle East, all the way to Pakistan? To Afghanistan?
Are we witnessing a people’s revolution that will change the face of the Arab world? I wonder if there will be a contagious people’s revolution as there was in Latin America these past years, turning a continent of right wing dictators into a continent of left wing leaders (yes ok, some of them are left wing dictators). But the point is that there has also been a corresponding economic boom in Latin America and I’m wondering if this is possibly the future of the Arab world.
Lawd knows we’re all ready for it.
And think of the possibilities…Egypt’s Mubarak falls off his perch. The US is forced to acknowledge that they’ve been backing a dictator and they really do stand behind the people’s wish for freedom and democracy. Neighbouring leaders must be quaking in their Gucci loafers - what’s next? Yemen? Saudi Arabia? Will the fall of dictatorial regimes actually leave the way clear for better leaders? Or will they be replaced by Mark Two versions of themselves? If the second, then we’re back to square one, but if the first, then the region has a chance.
The Arab world, once the seat of all learning and knowledge now ranks the lowest in education, in original scientific research, in book publishing, in employment prospects for the young, in economic well being - if all these issues were addressed, or at least begun on, then the trains of the mullah followers would be depleted. Give people a chance in life, a hope that they can marry and provide for their families, and they won’t be so ready to die for God, and get to a better life in the beyond.
And what happens in the Arab world, must touch on South Asia. So like the rest of the world, I watch on, breathless with anticipation, and hope.
on Feb 3rd, 2011 at 12:12 am
How far can this go? So far as geography can take it apparently. What first appeared to be popular protests based on an inflationary spiral of food prices into “People’s Revolutions”, have now formed into a geographical journey along major water routes and bodies from Tunesia to perhaps as far as Indonesia. Save for Afghanistan(which is of course landlocked), every country which may potentially be affected lies along sea routes directly leading one to another, significantly to the trade and security of many countries. Therefore, Dheera, this fast paced situation will leave many observers more than “breathless” but requiring oxygen tents or at least oxygen tanks in their offices! The first North African-Asian connection in similarity is the respective roles of the Egyptian miltary and security forces as the ultimate kingmakers in Egypt to the role played by Pakistan’s ISI as powerbrowker. Jordan will be the litmus test for Middle Eastern monarchies to survive, the failing of which will lead such vital waterways as the Suez Canal, Shat al-Arab, Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea, all vunerable to oil export closure. Out to the Indian Ocean, Asia becomes linked to a naval power buildup to keep its sphere of influence functional an open on the high seas, pressuring the demands of the Indian Army to be able for it to maintain a tremendously high manpower expenditure in Kashmir. To reach Indonesia, China’s interests are placed into play, as it will need militarilly and geopolitically to codify and insert into practice, its own “Monroe Doctrine”, for Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Yellow Sea, primarily to offset the naval presence near or within easy reach of these areas. Completing the Tunesia-Indonesia link would create a physical logistical bond btween Al-Queda and Hammas, under the state sponsored policies of Iran, Syria, and even North Korea. In summary, this would represent the defining catasthrophy of the Obama presidency. American responses will need to insure the protection of valuable American allies and their respective interests through the strengthening of US naval interests in the region. Japan would have to be more than encouraged to reconsider allowing the contiued use in Okinawa of US military interests there. The Philippine Republic, with its own internal strifes with Muslim and Communist factions, may face unprecendented pressure from the US for it to return to Suvic Bay and Clark Airfield. This crisis mode will have to come with China engaging in its own rapid naval expansion and up-grade, whilst at the same time having “an extra hand in the cookie jar”, with its growing assistance to Pakistan, especially in the Kashmir region. This is one consequence of the Tunesian initiated sequence of mass protests, which would lead to an Asian inspired “Dreadnought” naval buildup, resulting to a reflex fed response to a military crisis as a by-product of popular protest in the Muslim world. The masses are taking the first move to demonstrate, but will not have the last decision in the type or leader of regime which will govern them. The West is doing what little it can to slow down and methodically arrange the line of succession of the Muslim countries in question, but the question remains as to what extent the West can bring this task to an oderly conclusion. Given the rapidly of related events and the extent of subject material to be addressed, Dheera, this is the best I can do to remain along a central theme of writing on the basis of your question’s content.This one isn’t easy!!